Drones have become the weapon of choice in the conflict in Ukraine. In the past week, there have been drone strikes on Ukrainian grain silos and also deep into Russia on a Moscow skyscraper. The proliferation of drones on the battlefield is rising. Ukraine is losing 10,000 of them per month while defending itself from Russia, according to the Royal United Services Institute think tank. In their conflict with Hamas, in May 2021, the Israel Defence Forces became the first military to use a drone swarm in combat. This drone swarm struck “dozens” of targets. Flooding the battlefield with a large number of drones, especially those able to fly in a coordinated fashion, is a threat the US military is now seriously trying to address, says the Pentagon.

The Mehar baba competition of Indian Air Force (IAF) actually ushered in the drone swarm revolution in the country. In November 2021, India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) showcased the armed swarm drone technology to Indian Army (IA) at an event in Jhansi. The 25 drone swarm flew with minimal human intervention, and was capable of identifying & striking targets. A dazzling 10 minutes choreographed drone lightshow of 1000 indigenous drones was made at the Beating the Retreat ceremony in January 2023 at New Delhi. China has demonstrated the launch of over 200 swarm drones from a 48-tube launcher from a helicopter, and the drones switched between formations and conducted reconnaissance and attack missions. Most major countries have showcased drone swarm capabilities.

Understanding the drone swarm

The Mahabharata to Mongols to Napoleon all used human swarm formations to inundate the enemy through numbers and are the forebears of modern drones. A drone swarm is an autonomously networked small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) operating collaboratively to achieve common objectives with or without an operator being in the loop. Members of a swarm perform complex twisting and turning manoeuvres, changing direction, altitude and speed in flight. High-speed computations, complex algorithms and host of sensors make it possible. The mutual coordination is through their own artificial intelligence (AI) and constantly communications using interconnecting data-links. Drone swarms draw inspiration from the nature, and fly and manoeuvre somewhat like the Starling murmurations. Depending on size, type, mission and task, the swarms could comprise a few hundred to many thousands. They are autonomous and take own collective decisions. They use sensors and intelligent algorithms to fly flight paths and avoid collisions among themselves. Sensors allow accurate knowledge of own position, separation distances, and ability to predict neighbour’s future position. Communications could be through radio frequency (RF), cellular or satellite communications. Each member of the swarm or groups could have their own tasks. Members or groups may detach from the main swarm to take-on different tasks in different directions and locations. While the drones are autonomous, they could be connected to a ground control station (GCS), for possible en-route change of assignment.

Drone swarms could have civilian applications, but currently militaries are doing leading research. The swarm could act as an electronic sensor wall, used for weapons saturation, or as loitering munitions against airborne or surface targets. Drone swarms could also be used to counter adversary drone swarms. The drone swarm technology concept could also be used on land to create a force of robot-soldiers for land warfare, or mini-submarine swarms to tackle sea-surface or submarine threats. Scientists in China have unveiled a drone swarm capable of navigating through a dense bamboo forest without human guidance.

Coordinated UAS strikes are not swarms

Drone strike to drop bombs or munitions, firing missiles, or making a kamikaze attack into a target. These strikes could be by one or more drones through ground coordination. The US armed forces have made a significant number of such strikes in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen. Stand-alone drones were extensively used in the contested Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Drones are also being used in the Ukraine conflict.

The USA also used drones for targeted killings. More famous of these were the January 2020 drone strike that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, at Baghdad International Airport, and assassination of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, on 31 July 2022 in Kabul, Afghanistan.

The attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais on 14 September 2019, using many drones too were coordinated UAS strikes and could not be termed as a drone swarm attack.

Drone swarm deployment mechanics

A drone swarm has a designated leader or group of leaders. Specific group members may be authorised to assume drone control if the swarm leader gets disabled. The drones are being classified based on their specialised tasks. The physical composition of types in a drone swarm will be based on the mission tasks and objectives. The drone swarm for suppressing enemy air defences (SEAD) will be different from the swarm that will attack a concentration of troops or multiple targets on an airfield. Drones in a swarm could carry kinetic weapons or electronic attack devices. Loitering drones could carry anti-tank smart munitions.

Drone swarm offensive operations

The drone swarms allow more daring concepts of operation (CONOPs). They will be used in all kinds of classic offensive air missions that have often been termed “dangerous”. Drone swarms will be employed for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), SEAD, and offensive counter-air (OCA). They will also be able to saturate the defences. These missions will be much less expensive in terms of loss to platforms and humans.

A large drone swarm could be flown into an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft or a flight refuelling aircraft (FRA). A drone swarm positioned on the approach and take-off path could stop all air operations. Similar one flown into an area of combat air patrol would divert the attention of the fighter crew from the primary task.

Drone swarms have a great role in Counter Surface Force Operations (CSFO), especially Air Interdiction or Deep Air Support (DAS). Interdiction of high priority targets such as command posts, communications equipment, and radars. A drone swarm can also carry out huge damage to the structures and systems, and aircraft aboard a ship. Swarms can strike launching sites of ballistic missiles.

Drone swarm defensive operations

Drone swarms can act as fences around a Vital Area (VA) and Vital Point (VP). A drone swarm laden with small munitions can be made to hover in the general areas of ingress of adversary strikes. They could do the role of IR flares and radar deflecting chaffs. They could make great decoys to divert adversary air effort. A large mother drone in the swarm could carry air defence missiles. Onboard electro-optical drone jammers could collectively jam the attacking aircrafts sensors and foil the attack. Drone swarms could take on anti-drone or anti-swarm roles.

Drone swarms and military logistics

Drones swarms would have a great role in military logistics. They will be used as aerial convoys to deliver munitions and other sustenance supplies like food, water, and medical items to troops engaged in combat. They will be able to move fast and to places not connected by roads. They will replace the mountain mules in high altitude areas in the Himalayas and even in the Siachen glacier.

Drone swarm vulnerabilities

One critical element are the drones handling intra and inter drone communications. They not only ensure swarm integrity, but serve as an external link with mother aircraft, ground stations or other swarms. They are vulnerable to electronic warfare. Jamming of communications could send the swarm into disarray and there could be collisions. During adversary communications jamming, the communications drones have ability to pass emergency instructions through back-up frequencies to abort the mission or take fall back positions. Such drones have higher capacity battery power packs.

Manned-Unmanned aircraft teaming

Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) combines the strengths and fire power of a manned aircraft, and numbers and autonomy of cheaper unmanned aerial platforms to enhance mission effectiveness. Drones would lead the team and provide real-time situational awareness. The crew in the manned aircraft would support decision-making and operational flexibility. The combine which exploits human intelligence and AI reduces uncertainty and increases fire power.

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) X-61A Gremlin air launched drones could have the C-130 cargo aircraft as its mother-ship to launch and retrieve the swarms of small drones. The Russian S-70 Okhotnik UCAV has been tested in a loyal wingman role and could be employed with the Su-57 Felon. China’s AVIC 601-S ‘Anjian’ is also a loyal wingman. Pakistan is trying to seek Chinese help to fine-tune drone swarm technology.

Counters to drone swarms

There are many counter UAS (C-UAS) measures and systems. The swarm may use satellite navigation like GPS. That could be susceptible to jamming. But use of combination of inertial navigation, ground image matching, and relative position in swarm may reduce GPS usage. Intra swarm communications between drones is a continuous process. These signals can be detected by using space-based or airborne SIGINT platforms. The swarm could then be attacked using electronic or cyber means.

Disrupting the drone’s RF signal could send it out of control. There are means to dazzle and blind the EO/IR drone payloads. It is also possible to take control of such sensors through more powerful signal links. There are also hard-kill options such as sniper rifles, and anti-drone drones. Kinetic measures could also include deploying nylon streamers or firing nets to clog the drone rotors. There are also counter-swarm swarms.

Some companies are working on Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) and High-Power Microwave (HPM) emitters for drone and drone-swarm counters. Modern ground-based solid-state amplifiers can transmit significant directed energy against drone electronics. C-UAS is a multi-system approach.

Operational costs and flexibility advantages

Fractional low costs allow affording much larger numbers vis-à-vis manned aircraft. Numbers help overwhelm the adversary. Absence of humans on board allows the commanders to take higher risks and attempt more daring missions. Larger demand is bringing the cost down and allowing mushrooming of innovative designs.

Employment doctrine, scaling and air space management

Drone swarm doctrines and tactics are evolving. For current technological limitations, and legal, ethical, and political issues, full autonomy will be restricted. Since all the services will be requiring harnessing advantages of aerial drones swarms, a joint approach would bring higher dividends. There will also be a need for much greater inter-service coordination for employing drone swarms in operations in the Tactical Battle Area (TBA). Air space management will require a fresh approach. China’s PLA which has one of the largest UAV fleets, has already evolved the UAV unit structure. There will be a need for mission program specialists, drone technicians, launch and recovery operators, communication experts among others.

Drones swarms and terrorism

Terrorists and other militants can easily acquire the not so expensive small drones or swarms loaded with weapons and pose threat to military and the civil population. They could be used to strike large gatherings like a market place, a political or religious gathering. They could be used for assassination. They could be used to down an aircraft by flying into it on approach path. Greater policing and local intelligence would have to cater for such a threat.

India is pushing ahead, but has long distance to cover

As many as 75 indigenously designed drones were flown in an asymmetric drone swarm during the Army day parade, on 15 January 2021. It was evolved jointly between India Army (IA) and the Bengaluru-based start-up NewSpace Research and Technologies.

Among the top listed drone companies in India are Infoedge India, Zomato Ltd, Paras Defence & Space Technologies, Zen Technologies Limited, RattanIndia Enterprises, and DCM Sriram Industries. There are also about 134 drone startups in India as of early 2022. These include Vizzbee Robotic solutions, The eplane company, Thanos Technologies, Skylark Drones, Redwing Aerospace Laboratories, Drona Aviation, among many others.

According to the Civil Aviation Minister, by 2026, the Indian drone industry will achieve a turnover of over Rs 15,000 crore and will be a global drone leader by 2030. Drone Federation of India (DFI) chief Smit Shah is more optimistic and says India’s drone market can grow to Rs 50,000 crore in 5 years.

In July, DRDO successfully test flew a flying-wing UCAV meant for IAF. It was a major milestone. Indian armed forces meanwhile await the larger UAVs like DRDO’s TAPAS BH-201 and Ghatak class combat UAVs. The DRDO must accelerate its programs. The HAL’s Air Launched Flexible Asset (ALFA -S) air-launched swarming drones will be part of the proposed Combat Air Teaming System (CATS). The USAF’s Air Force Research Labs is also collaborating with HAL for the ALFA-S.

The Indian Air Force’s Mehar baba competition was a good initiative. The government’s Production-Linked Incentive scheme announced last year provides for funding 20 percent of the “value addition” made by the company during the next three years. The first Drone India 2021 exposition was held in Greater Noida. In May last year PM Modi inaugurated Bharat Drone Mahotsav 2022, India’s biggest drone event. The Fourth Drone International Expo 2023 was held at Pragati Maidan in New Delhi on 26 July 2023.

Way ahead

The era of drone swarms has just begun. John Boyd provides a framework of observe, orient, decide, act cycle (OODA loop), that provides a method to amplify drone swarms through positive feedback loops. Drone swarms are becoming a disrupting military capability, and even few getting through can have lethal impact. Operating the swarm has dynamic challenges. Getting the right mix of the types and numbers of drones in the swarm will decide the overall operational capability. Complexities increase as the swarm enters the tactical area during operational missions. Simulation and war-gaming of drone swarms can fine tune the capabilities.

An offensive drone swarm could pose serious challenges for defending high-value targets, as also countering massed drone attacks. India would also have to prepare defences against drone swarms. The sector requires investments in research and development. Drone swarms are both an asset and threat. Is India ready? For India, the time to act is now, lest it gets left behind.

The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed are personal. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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