Russian officials consider the aftermath of a UAV strike on the train station in Kursk, August 20, 2023.

There is a “very high” probability (80% to 90%*) that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) leadership is under significant pressure to enhance air defense operations in western regions of Russia after repeated UAV attacks in recent weeks, the UK’s Defense Ministry reported on Aug. 20.

The strikes within Russia, despite their “strategic significance,” are believed to have only a minor direct impact on the Russian population.

Recent UK intelligence reports have highlighted an expanding spectrum of threats that have breached Russia’s borders in the past few months.

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Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been carrying out regular attacks on Moscow, and there are increasingly frequent reports of SA-5 GAMMON missiles — potentially modified Ukrainian versions of the Soviet S-200 anti-aircraft missiles — hitting targets within Russia.

“This weaponry from Soviet times — (missiles) weighing 7.5 tons and measuring 11 meters in length — had been removed from Ukraine’s air defense arsenal. However, it appears they are now being repurposed as ground-based ballistic missiles,” noted British intelligence sources.

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They consider it “very likely” (80% to 90%*) that Russian authorities will apply pressure on the leadership of Russia’s Aerospace Forces to reinforce air defense systems in vulnerable regions.

This pressure is expected to target Major General Viktor Afzalov, the head of the Russian VKS staff, in particular. General Sergey Surovikin, the Commander-in-Chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, has remained absent from public view, leading to suspicions that his potential involvement in the Wagner Group coup attempt in June 2023 might have resulted in his detention, as emphasized by UK intelligence.

Explosions from unidentified UAVs have hit four Russian oblasts in the last day after reports from Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, Moscow, and Rostov oblasts.

An explosion shook Kursk, Russia, early on Aug. 20, causing a fire near the local railway station. Russian authorities reported minor injuries to five individuals from glass shards.

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During the same night, UAVs attempted an attack on Moscow, resulting in flight delays at Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports. Sergey Sobyanin, the Mayor of Moscow, confirmed that Russian air defense forces successfully prevented an unmanned aerial vehicle from breaching Moscow’s airspace from the southern direction.

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