Syurpriz (surprise), kamufliazh (camouflage), demonstrativnye manevry (manoeuvres intended to deceive), skrytie (concealment), imitatsia (the use of decoys and military dummies) and dezinformatsia (disinformation). Maskirovka (masking) is the overarching Soviet/Russian military doctrine—a time-tested battlefield strategy for centuries.

Prince Dmitry Ivanovich Donskoy and his 50,000 soldiers used Maskirovka to clobber the 1,50,000 Tatar-Mongols led by commander Mamai in the Battle of Kulikovo to defeat on 8 September, 1380.

The Soviets used the strategy in the Battle of Stalingrad (1942-43), the Battle of Kursk (1943) and the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962).

Several years later, Vladimir Putin used it in the Russo-Georgian War (2008), the annexation of Crimea (2014), and recently in Ukraine to bamboozle NATO, especially the United States (US).

The Russian president’s latest use of Maskirovka started with twin moves in June. First, he claimed to have “deployed” tactical nukes in Belarus. Second, he staged the fake Wagner Group coup around one week later, flummoxing NATO, the US, the CIA, the MI6 and military experts into believing that Yevgeny Prigozhin had challenged him.

The mainstream media too reacted in the typical way by splashing headlines and filling airwaves that Putin could use nukes in the Ukraine war and the ‘coup’ was the most devastating blow to his imperium.

Undeniably, Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine hasn’t turned out to be as planned. The Russian blitzkrieg made quick gains in the early weeks of the war in the northeast and south—approximately 16,000 square miles.

However, Moscow encountered stiff resistance as Ukraine received increasing Western military aid. According to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine had reclaimed about 54 per cent of the lost territories by the end of 2022. In fact, the ISW said in July that Ukraine’s counteroffensive, despite being slower, is better than the failed Russian winter offensive.

Left with no option, Putin has resorted to diversionary tactics. More than one month later, he has taken Maskirovka one step further. Military experts and the media are now consumed by the fear that Russia will invade Poland and ultimately declare war on NATO.

Gauging Putin’s unpredictability and next military manoeuvre in the Ukraine war is impossible. But the broad contours of his Maskirovka moves since 2008—when he occupied Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia—show that he is on a sinister mission to challenge NATO by creating a fear psychosis of dragging the world to the precipice of Armageddon or launching a full-scale invasion of Poland.

He has triggered paranoia and created the hypothesis of a Russia-NATO confrontation by challenging the military bloc in the Baltic.

Russian nukes in Belarus

Russia has the highest number of nukes at 5,889, of which around 1,816 are tactical. Putin’s deliberate flip-flop on using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war has kept the West on edge. While military experts have repeatedly stressed that he only resorts to nuclear blackmailing and won’t use nukes, the Russian leader has often said it’s not a bluff.

On 21 September last year, he warned the West, “This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them.” One week later, he said that Russian land would be defended “with all the powers and means at our disposal”.

One month later, Putin somersaulted. “We see no need for. There is no point in that—neither political nor military.”

In December, he was back to nuclear sabre-rattling. “It is all based around the so-called retaliatory strike—when we are struck, we strike in response.”

Neither the US, Russia or other nuclear powers will use N-weapons, merely deterrents to strike fear into enemies.

So, why Putin “deployed” tactical nukes in Belarus in June?

In his March announcement, he gave the reason that Britain decided to supply depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine. Nothing stops Putin from deploying N-arms in friendly nations considering that NATO has them in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, Turkey, the Netherlands, Greece and Belgium.

The deployment of nukes, which President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed to have a yield of about 48-63 kilotons each—three times more devastating than the Little Boy and Fatman—at Lida air base (40 km from the Lithuanian border), N-capable Iskander SRBMs and the “modification of Su-25s” to carry such weapons in Belarus is to frighten and deter NATO from crossing the Rubicon.

Putin won’t use the nukes, if deployed at all, but he has rattled the West by hinting at a nuclear nightmare on NATO’s eastern flank.

His assertion also becomes significant after a RAND Corporation report this year pointed out that a long conflict in Ukraine should be avoided to prevent a nuclear or Russia-NATO war.

Besides, the US Director of National Intelligence’s 2023 Annual Threat Assessment report stated: “Heavy losses to its [Russia’s] ground forces and the large-scale expenditures of precision-guided munitions during the conflict have degraded Moscow’s ground and air-based conventional capabilities and increased its reliance on nuclear weapons.”

In case, the Ukraine conflict reaches a nuclear confrontation, Russia would have the advantage of using the N-weapons in Belarus with no NATO nukes in any of the neighbouring bloc members—Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The nukes can hit Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Finland.

The other question is, has Putin really deployed nukes in Belarus or is it another Maskirovka trick?

Though NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg didn’t see “any changes in the nuclear posture” after Russia’s June announcement, it is difficult to track the delivery of tactical nukes as they are compact, can be transported secretly and don’t emit radiation.

Even senior Defence Intelligence Agency officials told CNN last month that it would be difficult to track their delivery even via satellite imagery though they had “no reason to doubt” Putin’s claim of sending nukes to Belarus.

Putin’s got what he wanted by claiming to have deployed N-arms in Belarus—consternation. After requesting NATO to include it in the Nuclear Sharing Programme, which allows non-nuclear members to host nukes as deterrence, in October 2022, Poland made a similar request in June this year.

“Since Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we again call on all of NATO to take part in the Nuclear Sharing Programme,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on June 30. “We do not want to sit idly by while Putin escalates all sorts of threats.”

Wagner stratagem in Poland, Suwalki Corridor

Putin’s Wagner coup drama, in which Prigozhin and Lukashenko played the second and third lead, respectively, was a masterstroke that baffled NATO and unsettled its eastern flank, especially Poland. While the world saw it as the subservient Putin’s chef rebelling against his master, the duo fooled NATO, military experts and the media.

In one of his shrewdest moves, the Russian president staged the coup, dubbed it treason and threatened to punish Prigozhin and his men. However, Putin’s vassal Lukashenko suddenly appeared to “strike” a deal allowing an unscathed “rebellious” Wagner to relocate to Belarus.

In mid-July, Putin told the Russian daily Kommersant that Prigozhin rejected his offer—made five days after the ‘rebellion’—of Wagner men serving in Russia under their commander Andrey ‘Sedoi (grey hair)’ Troshev, a veteran of the Soviet-Afghan, Chechen and Syria wars and close aide of the group’s founder Dimitriy Utkin.

The theatrics was evident. A convict-caterer-turned-mercenary financier propped up and financially backed by the Kremlin to fight its proxy wars rejecting Putin’s offer was not only suicidal but illogical and ridiculous.

Putin’s biggest military stratagem was disbanding Wagner. “Wagner does not exist. “There is no law on private military organisations,” Putin told the newspaper. However, the Russian Constitution doesn’t prohibit private military companies (PMCs). Clause 5 of Article 13 only prohibits the creation and operation of “public associations whose goals or actions are aimed at forcibly changing the foundations of the constitutional order and violating the integrity of the Russian Federation, undermining the security of the state, creating armed formations, inciting social, racial, national and religious hatred”.

The reality is Wagner is indispensable to Putin in his Ukraine operation. The mercenaries were part of the “Little green men”—comprising Russian Special Operations Forces, Spetsnaz GRU units and 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade of the VDV—who occupied the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and defeated Ukraine in the Battle of Bakhmut this year.

What appeared to be a Hollywood potboiler for the Russian public, NATO and Ukraine was a cunning strategic move in the battlefield. Wagner’s recent activities in Belarus prove it.

First, Belarus put up camps for 10,000 Wagner men. By the last week of July, its mercenaries had started training Belarusian armed forces at the Brest military range, only 5 km east of the Polish border. In the same week, Lukashenko apparently joked, “The Wagner guys have started to stress us. ‘Let’s go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow’.”

Second, Warsaw panicked—that’s what Putin wanted.

At July-end, an alarmed Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that more than 100 Wagnarites were moving towards Grondo, a city in western Belarus close to the Suwalki Corridor. He also suspected that the mercenaries could enter Poland disguised as Belarusian border guards to destabilise the country.

The Suwalki Gap is a 96-km strip of land strategically located between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which joins the Baltic to other NATO members. It is the only land access between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Poland had already moved 1,000 troops to its border with Belarus in July. After accusing a Belarusian Mi-8 and Mi-24 of violating its airspace earlier this month, Poland rushed 1,000 more troops to its east. A few days later, Warsaw rushed 8,000 additional troops.

“The Wagner group is extremely dangerous and they are being moved to the eastern flank to destabilise it,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said after meeting Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Poland’s Suwalki Gap this month.

🇵🇱 PM @MorawieckiM: We warn against provocations from Russia & Belarus. The Wagner Group may carry out sabotage actions, and anyone who plays down this threat may be responsible for further provocations and intrigues. pic.twitter.com/tB2GIWtPXg — Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland (@PremierRP_en) August 3, 2023

“Presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is an additional security risk factor for Lithuania and Poland,” Nauseda tweeted.

Productive meeting with 🇵🇱 PM @MorawieckiM at the Suwałki corridor to discuss security situation at our borders. Presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is an additional security risk factor for 🇱🇹 &🇵🇱 and NATO allies. We stay vigilant & prepared for any possible scenario. pic.twitter.com/9hTF814UHK — Gitanas Nausėda (@GitanasNauseda) August 3, 2023

Poland’s fears are not unfounded. Earlier this month, a series of Wagner recruitment posters in English appeared on the streets of the Polish city of Krakow. An online video posted on X—formerly Twitter—showed a poster with a QR code inside a Polish bathroom.

Putin is using a three-pronged Maskirovka to ratchet up the tension to divert NATO’s attention and resources from Ukraine, especially on its eastern and southern borders, to Poland.

The first part is creating a hysteria that Wagner will attack Poland and its Suwalki Corridor—though it might. The group was disbanded with this objective in mind.

Russian lawmaker Andrey Kartapolov suggested on Russia-1’s Evening with Vladimir Solovyov in July that Wagner was expelled to attack Poland, especially the Suwalki Gap. “Should anything happen, we need this Suwałki Corridor very much … a strike force is ready to take this small corridor in hours,” he said.

Mercenaries from PMC "Wagner" were moved to Belarus to attack Poland and seize the Suwalki corridor, Russian MP Kartapolov reveals Putin's brilliant plan pic.twitter.com/B7WNn3FfYA — TheKremlinYap (@TheKremlinYap) July 15, 2023

As Daniel Fried, former US ambassador to Poland, told Newsweek that Kartapolov’s remarks were “apocalyptic fascist hysteria” to “frighten” the West. But he didn’t discount the possibility of a Wagner attack. “This is not serious except as an indication of a rather bloodthirsty and sick strategic culture in Moscow,” he said adding that Russia could launch a “lightening attack” if Poland and NATO were not prepared.

If Wagner attacks the sparsely populated territory, Putin would immediately wash his hands off saying he had disbanded the group and banished its ‘rebellious’ leader. The situation would resemble the 2014 scene in Crimea, where Prigozhin and his men were actively involved in the annexation but were never recognised by Russia.

According to NATO’s Article 5, “… an armed attack against one or more of them [members] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all” and the members will assist that nation or countries individually and in concert with the other members, “including the use of armed force”.

Article 5 can’t be invoked against Russia since the Kremlin has severed its ties with the Wagner. Neither can it be invoked against Belarus since it will be not be directly involved in such an invasion.

The second part of the strategy is to divide the Polish-Ukrainian unity through the fake news that Poland wants to seize parts of Ukraine. As NATO kicked off its Lithuania summit in early July, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told Al Jazeera that there is now “an obvious desire of Poland to invade the western part of Ukraine,” without providing evidence.

Besides Zakharova, several other Russian officials, including Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) director Sergei Naryshkin and Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, have outlandishly suggested that Poland wants to seize parts of Ukraine it held before World War II.

A Russian plan to instigate Poles to participate in a Crimea-like referendum in Ukrainian areas held by Poland before WW II can’t be ruled out.

The third part of the strategy is to deter NATO from attacking Belarus if it directly assists Wagner or is part of a plan to target Poland.

At a meeting of the Security Council in July, Putin made the same bizarre claim. Suggesting that Poland and Lithuania are planning to seize parts of Ukraine, he said, “Unleashing aggression against Belarus will mean aggression against the Russian Federation. We will respond to this with all the means at our disposal.”

Logically, the idea of Putin attacking Poland or only the Suwalki Gap is absurd considering he is stuck in the Ukraine quagmire and any such misadventure would trigger Article 5—NATO vs Russia.

However, the only way Putin could target Poland and divert NATO from Ukraine is by using Wagner without getting directly involved. Unconfirmed reports based on Kremlin insiders of Wagnerites ‘leaving’ Belarus with Lukashenko ‘refusing to finance the group’ has made affairs murkier—a clear Maskirovka tactic.

The writer is a freelance journalist with two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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