DUP’s hardliner stance shores up support... for both them and Sinn Féin, as Michelle O’Neill remains the most popular party leader

Sinn Féin and the DUP are pulling further ahead of their political rivals as support for the SDLP, Ulster Unionists and TUV falls, according to a new LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph.

The Alliance Party is also on the rise.

Meanwhile, two thirds of unionist voters believe the DUP is right to stay out of Stormont until the Northern Ireland Protocol is scrapped.

On 31pc, support for Sinn Féin is up two points from the last poll in April and comfortably remains Northern Ireland’s largest party.

The DUP is up one point to 26pc, with Alliance up two points to take third spot on 15pc.

The UUP is down one point to 10pc, while the SDLP is also down one point to an all-time low of 6pc.

On 5pc, the TUV is down two points, indicating that hardline unionists are drifting back to Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s party.

The Greens and Aontu are unchanged on 2pc, as is People Before Profit on 1pc.

Some 2,950 people took part in our online poll conducted from August 11-14.

The sample was scientifically weighted to reflect the Northern Ireland population.

Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party at the Assembly and council elections over the past 15 months and it is continuing to perform strongly, the poll suggests.

Michelle O’Neill remains the most popular political leader in Northern Ireland, with 43pc of people saying she is doing a good or great job.

Naomi Long is in second place (38pc), with Doug Beattie in third (34pc) and Colum Eastwood in fourth (26pc).

The SDLP leader’s score has fallen nine points since April, as has Mr Beattie’s.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson (24pc) just comes in ahead of Jim Allister (23pc), who takes the bottom spot.

Almost twice as many people believe the DUP is doing a bad or awful job (66pc) as say the same of Ms O’Neill (37pc).

However, Mr Donaldson will be happy with his personal score among unionists: 56pc give him a good or great rating, beating Mr Allister into second spot on 51pc.

Mr Beattie remains significantly better liked by Alliance voters and nationalists, 46pc and 36pc of whom view him positively; however, only 28pc of unionists see him in the same light.

Ms O’Neill remains hugely popular with nationalists: 80pc believe she is doing a good or great job, with 56pc saying the same of Mrs Long but only 40pc of Mr Eastwood.

The Alliance leader is almost as unpopular with unionists as the Sinn Féin vice-president.

Some 71pc of unionist voters rate her poorly, with 72pc saying the same of Ms O’Neill and 70pc of Mr Eastwood.

The DUP leader is nearly universally viewed in a negative light by nationalists and Alliance/Green supporters, with 94pc and 93pc respectively saying he is doing a bad or awful job.

Neither the British Prime Minister nor the Secretary of State impress Northern Ireland voters.

Just 7pc rate Rishi Sunak positively, while Chris Heaton-Harris is viewed even more negatively, with a mere 4pc of people seeing him in a good light.

Some 73pc of people believe Mr Sunak is doing a poor job, with 82pc saying the same of Mr Heaton-Harris.

Mr Sunak’s personal score is down 26 points and Mr Heaton-Harris’s score is down 27 points since the April poll.

Unionist feeling on the Northern Ireland Protocol has hardened over the summer, with two-thirds saying the DUP shouldn’t return to Stormont until it is scrapped.

As talks between Mr Donaldson’s party and the British government continue ahead of an autumn push to restore devolution, unionist voters seem in no mood to compromise.

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Some 64pc believe that Mr Donaldson’s party must maintain its boycott of the institutions until the protocol is removed completely, even if that means Stormont’s permanent closure. It represents a two-point rise from our previous LucidTalk poll in April.

The view that Mr Donaldson shouldn’t lead his party back into the Executive until the protocol is totally gone is held by 76pc of DUP, 95pc of TUV, but just 22pc of UUP voters.

The Windsor Framework was agreed between the UK and EU in February and seeks to cut the bureaucracy on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland created by the protocol. However, the DUP has indicated the framework does not go far enough to address its concerns.

The DUP had collapsed the Stormont power-sharing institutions in February 2022 in protest at the protocol.

Only 34pc of unionists want the DUP to return to government under existing political circumstances, compared to 37pc who supported that stance in the spring.

Three per cent of unionists think the DUP should re-enter Stormont even if it means accepting the Windsor Framework — down six points from April.

Just 2pc of DUP, zero TUV and 8pc of UUP supporters say they support such a compromise.

Almost a third of unionists (31pc, up three points since the spring) believe that Stormont is a priority and that Mr Donaldson should lead his party back and operate the institutions while trying to renegotiate the Windsor Framework, even if he is unsuccessful. That view is held by 66pc of UUP voters, but only 19pc of DUP and 4pc of TUV supporters.

Women and young people are less hardline than men and the older generation.

Over two-thirds (68pc) of men believe Sir Jeffrey should maintain his boycott until the protocol is binned, compared to 56pc of women.

The favoured option among 18-to-24-year-old unionists is for the DUP to return to government while trying to renegotiate the protocol (58pc).

Some 41pc back remaining out of the Executive until the protocol is scrapped — the only age group in which there isn’t a majority for doing so.

Support for the hardline position is actually strongest among those in late middle age: 73pc of 55- to 64-year-olds are behind it compared to 60pc of the over-65s.

Meanwhile, just 2pc of non-unionist voters believe the protocol is the only reason for the DUP’s Stormont boycott.

Two-thirds believe that reluctance to serve under a Sinn Féin first minister is the sole or main reason behind the refusal of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s party to enter government.

This view is held by 81pc of Sinn Féin and 58pc of Alliance supporters. However, SDLP voters are much more generous in their interpretation of the DUP’s boycott: just over a third (35pc) believe the DUP is motivated by Michelle O’Neill being in line for Stormont’s top job.

Some 65pc of SDLP supporters think that the protocol is the only or main reason for Mr Donaldson’s party staying out of government.

Methodology

Polling was carried out online from 1pm on August 11 to 10pm on August 14, using the established LucidTalk Northern Ireland online opinion panel (15,676 members). This is balanced to be demographically representative.

Some 2,950 full responses were received, which were authenticated, audited, weighted and modelled into a 1,047 NI-representative data-set used for analysis for the final results. All results are accurate in terms of being NI representative to within an error of +/-2.3pc at 95pc confidence.

LucidTalk is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its regulations. LucidTalk is the only NI and Ireland-based polling and market research company which is a member of the council.