Iowa’s fall waterfowl seasons are fast approaching. The first segment of this year’s duck season begins Sept. 1 with a statewide, 16-day teal hunt. The early segment of the (North Zone) goose season commences Sept. 23.

For many migratory species, Iowa marks the halfway point between spring nesting and southern wintering grounds. When, where, and if those birds will pause to visit our favorite wetlands will largely depend on current habitat conditions, developing fall weather patterns, and upon the whims of the birds themselves. Speculative at best, the business of accurately predicting future migration patterns and upcoming hunter success is less than an exact science. This year, the uncertainties are even greater than usual.

Many of the ducks funneling down the Mississippi Flyway each autumn originate in the prairie wetlands of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Although dry habitat conditions on the southern prairies showed improvement during early spring, those conditions deteriorated during the critical nesting months of May and June. Abnormally warm and dry weather persisted through July, with Canada’s prairie region receiving less than 40 percent of its normal rainfall. According to Agriculture Canada’s Canadian Drought Monitor, nearly 70 percent of the prairie region is currently categorized as abnormally dry or in drought condition. Drought-stricken crops have been severely impacted across much of the region. In Saskatchewan, hay yields were so low that producers are considering selling off livestock.

In Iowa, we are currently recording the 20th driest year (January through July) since record keeping began in 1895. A total of 78.5 % of Iowa is currently in drought with the remainder of the state classified as abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Wetland habitat conditions are all over the chart. In northwest and northcentral Iowa’s 35-county prairie pothole region, water levels on small to medium-sized marshlands range from low to very low to bone dry. Some pleasant exceptions to this unwelcome trend occur on wetlands that received isolated, but substantial, rainfall during mid-summer. A second bright spot is found at some of the state’s larger public wetlands. Beginning the warm weather season with water levels measuring near or at crest levels, many of these mega-marshes remain in surprisingly good condition and will provide attractive stopovers for southbound waterfowl.

Although this year’s habitat picture is far from glamorous, a single significant weather event could still turn things around. We’ve seen the pendulum swing before when a hard, three or four-inch gully washer rapidly recharged parched wetlands. But while we’re all waiting for that to happen, September teal hunters would be well advised to scout out their favorite hotspots well in advance of Opening Day. Unless local conditions improve, hunters might find traditional potholes covered in sunbaked mud instead of water and ducks.

Enjoy more outdoor tales online at Washburn’s Outdoor Journal at iawildlife.org/blog.