Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty/Reuters

When eight Republican presidential hopefuls step onto a debate stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, Donald Trump won’t be among them.

But that doesn’t mean the former president and his allies are skipping out on furiously working to make the first GOP presidential debate a Trump victory.

Behind the scenes, Trump’s campaign is putting their confidence in a team of surrogates traveling to the debate site to spin on his behalf.

They’re banking on a pre-taped interview between Trump and right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson—to be aired in primetime—to distract from the debate and deal a blow to the event’s host network, Fox News.

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Above all, they may be betting on Trump himself, and his unique ability to distract, deflect, and distort.

“I WILL BE VERY BUSY TOMORROW NIGHT,” the former president wrote in a Truth Social post Tuesday afternoon, seemingly suggesting he could be plucking away at his iPhone keyboard to send out messages during the debate. “ENJOY!!!”

One source close to Trump suggested to The Daily Beast that the post telegraphed his plans to push out rapid-response commentary during the debate or to partake in last-minute interviews. A Trump spokesperson did not return a request for comment about his exact debate night plans.

What seems certain, at this point, is that Trump will not participate in the debate himself. The Republican National Committee set a Monday night cutoff for candidates to confirm their attendance, a deadline Trump missed after months of building anticipation over what he would do.

For the former president, his calculus around the debate has not been a mystery: He wants the primary to be a coronation, not a competition. Looking at the available public polls of the race, his team believes GOP voters largely feel the same.

“He’s so far ahead in the polls, why would you go on the stage with 1 percenters,” a Trump adviser told The Daily Beast, as to Trump’s recent thinking. “It’s a joke.”

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Still, the Milwaukee debate is the first real opportunity for Trump’s biggest rivals—namely, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy—to pick up the momentum necessary to challenge the former president for the nomination.

It will also be a platform for two vehemently anti-Trump voices in the field, former Govs. Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, who will get their biggest platforms yet to argue the GOP should avoid re-nominating him at all costs.

Given that backdrop, Trump’s team has understood they cannot ignore the debate entirely, even if Trump himself is pretending to ignore it.

They seem to have settled on a two-pronged strategy of both drawing attention away from the big event and making their presence known at it—a formula that could persist through the primary debate season, which Trump has indicated he will not participate in whatsoever.

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The news of Trump’s decision not to show in Milwaukee broke last week alongside the announcement that he would sit for an interview with Carlson, to be streamed on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter.

While Carlson’s viewership has likely shrunk significantly since his firing from Fox News, Trump’s inner circle seems to view the host’s platform as a significant draw away from the debate on his former network.

“You can’t buy that type of exposure,” said one of the three Trump advisers who spoke to The Daily Beast. They were not authorized to speak on the record by the campaign.

This source added that there’s an “expectation” inside the Trump orbit that the Carlson interview will draw more eyeballs than the Fox News debate—and perhaps force the network and other media outlets to cover the sideshow, too.

“It’s hard to cover the debate and not point out the counter-programming,” they said.

That logic may also apply to the Trump team’s strategy to ensure he is promoted in Milwaukee, even if he’s not actually there.

The campaign has carefully strategized over the question of which surrogates to send to engage with press, activists, and other figures who will be on hand for the first debate. They ultimately chose four stalwart MAGA figures: Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Byron Donalds (R-FL), and Matt Gaetz (R-FL); and former Arizona governor candidate Kari Lake.

The Trump campaign selected the four Republicans for their familiarity with tough press questioning and their popularity among the base.

“I think you’re seeing some of the biggest supporters,” a Trump adviser said. “They’re all very vocal, they’re on the front lines, and all of them speak at the rallies, so it’s kind of the same crowd that has gone to those places.”

Citing the possibility for “fireworks” on the debate stage, some of which will be aimed at Trump, this adviser said the Trump campaign didn’t want to send representatives who were “unknown,” but instead loyalists who would be willing to “stick their necks out” on his behalf.

Greene’s selection in particular was seen as particularly important, given what is perhaps the most significant bit of debate counter-programming: Trump’s anticipated arraignment in Atlanta on Thursday on charges he illegally sought to overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia.

The northwest Georgia congresswoman is “authentically and realistically the most logical person” to go to Milwaukee and parry any indictment-related scrutiny, said a Trump operative who is also close to Greene. They argued her job should be to “do as much discrediting as possible” of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ case against the former president.

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Given how little appetite Trump’s primary foes have shown to so much as suggest Trump behaved illegally or unethically in the Georgia case—or in any of the three other criminal cases he is facing—such an approach from Greene may be a politically astute one on debate night.

No matter what the surrogates do, however, any positive media that could flow from a breakout performance by any rival candidate is likely to be overshadowed when Trump turns himself over to authorities at the Fulton County jail on Thursday.

“It will take the oxygen out of whatever happens from the debate,” a longtime Trump confidant said. “Right now, I have CNN on, not Fox News, because I want to see what they’re talking about—it’s all day, every day, every program is the Georgia indictment.”

For Trump’s orbit, their beef with Fox News—which is hosting the first debate and the next one on its affiliate Fox Business—may be as intense as any conflict with the candidates who will appear onstage Wednesday night.

In the final days leading up to the debate, the right-wing media giant has seemingly hit back at the former president’s campaign for trying to influence an event their candidate is skipping.

According to Axios, Fox News is prohibiting Trump’s aides from participating in the customary post-debate spin room, a large hall where campaigns’ representatives can immediately face the press and explain why their candidate won the debate.

On a different front, top Trump adviser Chris LaCivita accused Fox News on Tuesday of engaging in “censorship” after the network allegedly prohibited employees from viewing a website created by MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned Super PAC, which trolled candidates who are partaking in the GOP presidential debate.

“Swamp comes in all flavors and colors,” he said of the cable behemoth.

One of the most outspoken Trump allies—Steve Bannon—has taken it a step further by urging his viewers to boycott the Fox News debate in Trump’s honor.

“Friends don’t let friends watch TV for stupid people,” Bannon said of Fox News earlier this week. “Make sure they do not watch the debate.”

Despite that call to action, Bannon’s own boss couldn’t disagree more.

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“Candidates that can’t or won’t stand up to voice their policy and opinions in an open public sphere of a debate have no right to run for public office in a democracy,” Robert J. Sigg, the president of Performance One Media, which owns the far-right network Real America’s Voice, told The Daily Beast. The network broadcasts Bannon’s popular shows.

“We will be spotlighting those candidates that are willing to show up,” Sigg said. “Any candidate not willing to talk to the American people does not deserve air time.”

While Trump won’t be onstage Wednesday evening, two Trump advisers said the push to convince Trump to appear in Milwaukee has not slowed, despite the fact that he has missed the RNC's deadline to confirm participation.

On Tuesday morning, the campaign continued as Fox News host Steve Doocy wondered aloud if Trump could roll up at the last minute to the debate in a “limousine.” A Fox News reporter responded by leaving the door open to the possibility.

“Every single day, they’re out there pitching for him to show up,” a previously mentioned Trump adviser said of Fox News. “And every guest that goes on, they’re asking: ‘Do you think he’ll show up?’”

“They want him there. He’s been the one to make the choice,” this source added. “I don’t think they’re ignoring him; he’s ignoring them.”

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