The turmoil in Pakistan under a caretaker government — exemplified by the unprecedented charge by President Arif Alvi that he didn’t sign two key bills into law, and that his signature was forged — is destabilising its security situation. The most significant of these threats is the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) which is active in Pakistan and Afghanistan . One of its primary targets is the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F), a prominent Sunni-Deobandi political party in Pakistan led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman. PREMIUM Given the complex web of sectarian rivalries, political affiliations, and ideological conflicts, ISKP’s expansion poses a significant threat to regional stability(Representative Photo)

The rise of ISKP is of particular concern to India due to its historical connection with Deoband Islam, which originated in India. ISKP’s ambition to target India has been evident through its media publications and claims of operations in the country. As the threat continues to grow, India must closely monitor developments and prepare a comprehensive strategy to counter the rising influence of ISKP in the region.

On July 30, a devastating suicide bombing at a political rally of JUI-F in Khar city of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was linked to ISKP. The bombing killed 50 people, and injured another 200, making it one of the deadliest incidents in Pakistan this year. ISKP claimed responsibility for the attack within hours, signalling its ongoing campaign against the JUI-F and its affiliates.

The targeting of JUI-F is rooted in sectarian rivalries, turf wars, and political expediency. The Deobandi school of thought, followed by JUI-F, has been viewed as a significant obstacle to ISKP’s extremist ideology. The group’s ideology is built upon a Takfiri interpretation of Islam, which entails declaring some Muslims as infidels or apostates due to perceived deviations from their puritanical beliefs. This ideology has been linked to violence and extremism.

The ISKP’s media arm is publishing materials specifically targeting Deobandis. An article in its publication Voice of Khorasan titled “Who are the Deobandis?” criticises this branch of Sunni Islam, accusing them of straying far from Islam based on their interpretations of Sharia. The publication points out similarities between some practices of the Deobandis and those considered polytheistic in rival schools of thought such as Barelvi. Furthermore, ISKP condemns leading Islamic scholars in Pakistan who belong to the Deobandi school but reject its doctrine.

Understanding the roots of ISKP’s hostility towards JUI-F requires examining events before its formation. Hafiz Saeed Khan, the eventual leader of ISKP, was a prominent Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander in the Orakzai tribal district in 2012-2013. During this time, he faced admonishments from TTP’s central command for allowing the assassination of JUI-F scholars who spoke out against TTP. Subsequently, when Hafiz Saeed and other TTP commanders joined ISKP in 2014, their animosity towards JUI-F — combined with the Islamic State’s virulent ideology — provided ISKP with the justification to condemn JUI-F’s beliefs.

Deobandi Islam traces its roots back to the late 19th century in Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh. It emerged as a prominent Islamic seminary and has gained followers in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Although Deobandi Islam and the philosophy practised in India do not align with the ideologies of the Taliban or JUI-F in Pakistan, ISKP’s media publications have revealed ambitions to establish a presence in India. In the 23rd edition of Voice of Khorasan, ISKP declared its intentions to target India, warning of IS-linked operatives in South India and linking them to previous attacks in Coimbatore and Mangaluru. ISKP also condemned high-profile meetings between senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders and Muslim scholars, highlighting its continued monitoring of Indian current affairs.

Given the complex web of sectarian rivalries, political affiliations, and ideological conflicts, ISKP’s expansion poses a significant threat to regional stability. New Delhi must adopt a multi-faceted approach to counter the growing power of ISKP. Close monitoring of its media outreach and intelligence sharing with regional partners are crucial to understanding and mitigating the threat. Strengthening counterterrorism efforts and enhancing border security will help prevent the infiltration of ISKP-linked operatives into Indian territory. Furthermore, India should engage in diplomatic efforts with Afghanistan and Pakistan to address the common threat posed by ISKP. Collaborative initiatives to combat terrorism, share intelligence, and disrupt terror networks can be instrumental in containing the group’s influence in the region.

An unstable Pakistan not only affects the security of the immediate region but also has spillover effects on neighbouring countries such as India. Collaboration with regional partners, robust intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and diplomatic efforts must be key components of India’s response.

Soumya Awasthi is consultant, Tony Blair Foundation. The views expressed are personal