Ukraine crisis enters 'garbage time,' likely to last long: experts

Global Times

By GT staff reporters Published: Aug 20, 2023 10:37 PM

This past weekend saw continued fighting between Russia and Ukraine on the frontlines and behind the lines. Dozens of battles were reported in frontline areas, while airports, train stations and other targets in both countries were hit. Although the battle is burning its way into Russian territory, neither side has much ability to change the course of the war, analysts noted on Sunday.

Experts describe the conflict as having entered "garbage time," considering that neither side is likely to make much progress. However, the conflict is seen as to be continuing for a long time, unless a major turning point appears.

On Sunday, Moscow's Domodedovo and Vnukovo airports suspended flight arrivals and departures, reported Russian News Agency TASS. The shutdown was believed to be related to a drone threat.

A noticeable change, however, is that the battlefield has expanded to Russian territory, said Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator.

"This is inevitable because Ukraine has been seeking more long-range weapons, including drones, modified anti-aircraft missiles and cruise missiles," Song told the Global Times on Sunday. "It will have an increasing ability to strike targets in Russia in the future."

Earlier on Saturday, Russia's Defense Ministry reported a flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting the regions of Moscow, Novgorod to the northwest of the Russian capital, and Belgorod that borders Ukraine, Reuters reported. On Sunday, five people were reportedly injured in a drone strike targeted at a train station in Kursk in western Russia.

Also on Saturday, seven people were killed and 144 were wounded after a Russian missile struck a central square in northern Ukrainian city Chernihiv, said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

Russian defense ministry on Saturday said its air defenses have destroyed 23 Ukrainian unmanned aviation vehicles (UAVs). On Sunday, Russia said its forces destroyed ammunition of Ukrainian mortar unit near Kupyansk, repelled a Ukranian attack in Zaporozhye, and destroyed up to 15 Ukrainian fighters in Kherson.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also said on Saturday that dozens of battles had been fought on the frontline. The Ukrainian air force, rocket and artillery units struck targets such as concentrations of Russian personnel and equipment and air defenses.

It is clear from the latest developments that neither side has the ability to dramatically change the situation, nor are they focusing on the frontlines of the battle, Cui Heng, an assistant research fellow from the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Sunday.

Cui described the conflict as having entered what he called "garbage time," where neither side is likely to make much progress, but rather stalling in the hope of exhausting the other.

Cui sees this as Ukraine's operational strategy to break the isolation that Russia has deliberately created aiming to separate the battlefield from major Russian cities and the general public, in a bid to turn the Russian population against the conflict.

"However, Ukraine's military is not strong enough to make a frontal breakthrough," he said.

Experts believe this conflict is bound to become protracted, as the two sides are unable to reach a consensus on the territorial dispute and the US-led West hopes to use Ukraine to drag Russia down. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday that the West is not interested in negotiating with Moscow on the issue of Ukraine, reported Xinhua News Agency.

But an escalation of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine hinges on the attitude of the US and NATO, Song noted.

If the US and NATO provide more long-range strike weapons, then the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate, he said. If the US and NATO choose to intervene directly, then the conflict could escalate to the entire European continent.

Ukraine has begun discussing with Sweden the possibility of receiving Gripen jets to boost its air defense, said Zelensky on Saturday after meeting Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, following approval from the US for Denmark and the Netherlands to send F-16 fighters to Ukraine.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote in his Telegram channel on Saturday that Russia is set to "destroy the nationalist regime in Kiev" even if it takes "years and even decades," according to TASS.

Ukrainian media reported that Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced his readiness to resign and Zelensky is currently actively seeking a replacement for the post.

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